The Politics of Humanity by John Holmes

Author:John Holmes [John Holmes]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781781852088
Publisher: Head of Zeus
Published: 2012-03-15T00:00:00+00:00

Political change

In the months that followed, the situation continued to improve steadily. But the emphasis by this time was shifting back to politics and the need to try to find a better way forward for the people. One hope was that the positive humanitarian aid experience might have created a little more trust and readiness to open up on the Myanmar side. A fresh attempt at dialogue was, therefore, needed.

The early signs were not promising. Ibrahim Gambari resumed his visits, but to no apparent effect. Ban ki-Moon eventually decided to visit again himself in July 2009, despite the fact that he had not received the assurances he had sought in advance (for example, on political prisoners and the removal of ASSK from house arrest). I and others were doubtful whether he should go ahead in such circumstances. But he was determined to try and convinced he had managed to establish a working relationship of some confidence with the Myanmar senior leadership.

The visit was fruitless in the short term: he was unable to see ASSK, no political prisoners were released, and no worthwhile assurances about the future were received. He got some credit for trying, but rather more criticism from the usual quarters, in Western capitals and the international press, for naivety. However, his persistence began to be rewarded, as signs of a thaw in the regime’s attitude to reform emerged. Some political prisoners were released. ASSK herself was let out in November 2010, just after the elections in which she and her party had refused to take part, won overwhelmingly by the newly created party of the former military regime. And when former prime minister Thein Sein was appointed head of the newly elected government, the pace of change began to accelerate dramatically, to almost universal surprise in the outside world – and much initial scepticism. More political prisoners were released, freedom of expression increased, economic reform started, a political dialogue between Thein Sein and ASSK began, and a real sense of openness and readiness to change could be felt. ASSK and the National League for Democracy decided in early 2012 to contest by-elections in order to be able to take part in parliamentary discussion, and won them triumphantly.

As I write, the reform process is continuing to pick up speed and even the greatest sceptics are beginning to accept that something real and different is happening. Thein Sein seems to have taken the wise view that the country could not go on as it was. Whether he has unleashed forces and processes he did not anticipate and will struggle to control, as Gorbachev did in Russia, remains to be seen. But for the moment Myanmar seems to be changing significantly for the better, which is profoundly to be welcomed. And I think there is reason to believe that the experience of Nargis played some part in this, through the genuine help the international community was able to provide without political strings, and the dialogue that Ban ki-Moon opened up at

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